How powerful is this U.S. missile, and could it change the course of the Ukraine war?

 How powerful is this U.S. missile, and could it change the course of the Ukraine war?

The Army Tactical Missile System or Atacoms missile is manufactured by US company Lockheed Martin, a weapons and defense equipment manufacturer File photo: AFP

For the first time, Ukraine has launched an attack inside Russia using the ATACMS, a long-range missile provided by the U.S. with approval from President Joe Biden. This authorization came shortly after the Democratic Party's defeat in the U.S. presidential election, which saw Kamala Harris lose to Donald Trump, signaling a shift in power. Ukraine’s missile strike on Russian soil has now escalated tensions, increasing the risk of nuclear conflict.

Although the U.S. had supplied Ukraine with ATACMS for some time, it had previously been reluctant to allow its use against Russian territory, fearing it could further escalate the war. The potential impact of the ATACMS missile on the conflict, and its power, are now key points of discussion.

What is the ATACMS Missile?

The Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) is a long-range missile with a striking range of up to 300 km, making it highly significant for Ukraine's military strategy. Manufactured by Lockheed Martin, a leading U.S. defense contractor, ATACMS missiles can be launched from either the M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) or the wheeled M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS). Each missile costs approximately $1.5 million.

The ATACMS missile uses solid rocket propellant, allowing it to accelerate quickly after launch. Once in flight, it takes a sharp, guided turn toward its target, making it difficult to intercept.

ATACMS can carry two types of warheads. The first is a cluster bomb, which contains hundreds of submunitions capable of destroying light armored vehicles, fighter jets, air defense systems, and ground units over a wide area. However, cluster bombs present a danger even after a conflict ends, as some submunitions may fail to detonate, posing a risk to civilians long after the strike.

The second warhead option is a 225 kg high-explosive bomb designed to destroy military installations and major infrastructure.

The ATACMS missile has been used in combat since the Gulf War of 1991. However, the U.S. military currently favors more advanced precision strike missiles, which are faster, smaller, and have a range of up to 500 km. No reports suggest Ukraine will be supplied with these more advanced missiles.

How Useful Will ATACMS Be for Ukraine?

Military analysts suggest that while Ukraine’s use of ATACMS missiles may not drastically change the course of the war, it still provides a significant strategic advantage. Russia has already begun preparing for potential attacks by repositioning military assets, including warplanes, deeper within its territory.

However, the relocation of military equipment inside Russia could put Russian soldiers at greater risk. Moving these assets away from the front lines would strain supply lines and reduce the flow of ammunition and arms to Russian troops on the battlefield, who would also face delays in receiving air support.

While Ukrainian forces have been dealing with shortages of arms and ammunition, analysts believe the use of ATACMS could bolster morale and offer a tactical advantage, even though it is unlikely to alter the overall dynamics of the war.

What Will Turn the Tide of the War?

"I don't think allowing Ukraine to use long-range missiles to strike Russian territory will significantly change the course of the war," a Western diplomat in Kiev told the BBC, speaking on condition of anonymity. "It's more of a symbolic move to show steadfast support for Ukraine and reinforce the commitment to aid the country. However, it will increase the cost of the war for Russia."

Evelyn Farkas, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense under former U.S. President Barack Obama, raised a key concern about the missile supply. "The real question now is how many ATACMS missiles will actually be delivered to Kiev, even if their use is approved," she told the BBC. "We've heard from the Pentagon that there aren't enough missiles available to send to Ukraine at the moment." Despite this, she believes that granting Ukraine permission to use ATACMS will provide a psychological boost to its forces.

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